A Long and Difficult Transition
in Cuba
Alonso Heredia
Courier-Post
The return to democracy in Cuba after the death of Fidel Castro is not going to be an easy process.
For one, against all predictions, the exit of the person who has amassed the powers of the state for nearly 50 years does not mean an automatic fall of the regime.
Certainly, the process of change is not going to end, but it will not occur as fast as expected.
Although Fidel Castro has designated a team to succeed him, in reality his brother Raul is at the top of the power ladder. In fact, Raul Castro has been secretary of defense for decades and has controlled the Cuban armed forces for a long time. Today, it is no secret that the military will play a substantial role in the transition of this country toward democracy.
Analysts cannot agree on how long the Castro regime will last without Fidel. This depends on many internal and external factors, and above all on the international community’s support.
Even when the political system completely changes, the work to build a new society will be arduous and complex.
The way in which things developed from the very moment of the revolution, on January 1, 1959, tore Cuban society apart. Those who felt that the new regime put their freedoms at risk and thus prevented them from keeping their wealth and maintaining a lifestyle of their choosing, decided to quickly abandon the country.
Families with foreign properties or investments were able to keep this wealth, but their national assets were lost to the Cuban state. These thousands of people have become the foundation of the Cuban Diaspora in the United States.
And in this country, they have kept alive their desire to go back to the Cuba they left. However, that Cuba does not exist any longer. Most of the goods that were confiscated from them and their parents disappeared or are in ruins. Further, the culture and the customs changed from what they once knew at the time they left their nation.
The emotional shock of the return will be strong for those who have in their minds a Cuba of the past.
There are many who have left years after the revolution. The latter will not be as traumatized when going back as they did not leave property and will not find themselves trying to re-take possession of what has been forever lost. What’s more, the only memory these people keep is of a life under a political regime they opposed.
Many Cubans stayed. Some simply could not leave, but many others decided to stay either because they felt identified with the political system or because they assimilated through the political propaganda.
Half a century has gone by since the victory of the revolution, which means there are two adult generations who are capable of making their own decisions.
When the Communist government falls and Cubans are enabled to choose the society they want, there could be irreconcilable differences between those who return from the exile and those who chose to stay. This will further burden the transition process.
Officers from the Cuban government who engaged in transgressions, such as human rights violations and lese humanity crimes, may well have to respond for their acts in the courts.
But the simple people, who stayed in the country under the regime, lack other nationalities and have no other land to call home, have the foremost right to head the process that will change the political direction of their nation.
These people not only endured the regime, but also withstood outside measures that were both extreme and absurd, such as an economic embargo that did little to high-ranking government officers, but succeeded on bringing misery to the general population.
When Fidel Castro announced his retirement, George W. Bush said that the future of Cuba must be in hands of the Cuban people. He added that those who want to initiate processes to recuperate properties confiscated during the revolution will have to wait until democratic institutions are well-functioning in Cuba. In the meantime, Bush insisted that the Cuban people are responsible for the transition toward democracy.
This should be the path, but obviously those who have waited for decades in exile will not give up on their dreams of participating in this historical moment.
A sign of change in the island will be that the country’s destiny is in the hands of all Cubans. There will have to be a fraternal reencounter to heal the wounds, to bury the hate and to alleviate the suffering of all.
® Translation copyright Virtua Language Agency, LLC
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